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The Simulation Hypothesis: The Odds Are 1 in 3 That We Live in a Simulation

August 02, 2020

The concept of the simulation hypothesis suggests that our universe is actually a highly advanced simulation created by an advanced civilization. Essentially, this means that our universe is a form of virtual reality, similar to a computer game and we are integrated into this simulation.

What once sounded like pure science fiction has also become a subject of philosophical debate. In 2003, Oxford philosopher Nick Bostrom published a paper presenting three possibilities. Either civilizations like ours are very unlikely to reach an advanced stage, advanced civilizations are unlikely to run large numbers of simulations of their ancestors, or we might actually be living in one ourselves. The argument is interesting, but it doesn't mean that scientists have calculated a one-in-three chance that our universe is simulated.

How Simulations Work

The core idea here is that a highly advanced civilization would have the capability to create a virtual universe so intricately designed that the beings within it, including ourselves, would perceive it as authentically real. Such a simulation could be realized through a type of supercomputer with the capacity to generate and control millions of simulated worlds simultaneously.

Arguments For and Against the Possibility of Simulation

An argument for the simulation hypothesis is based on the rapid advancement of computer simulation technology. In recent decades, we've made tremendous progress in developing complex virtual worlds that are becoming increasingly realistic. If this technology continues to advance, it seems entirely plausible that such a simulation could be possible in the future.

Do you remember my 2012 article on the double-slit experiment? It's certainly one of the stranger things you'll come across in quantum mechanics. Some people compare it to a computer game that only renders things when you're looking at them. That's a fun comparison, but the experiment doesn't actually provide evidence that our universe is a simulation. In quantum mechanics, observing something means obtaining information through a physical interaction, not simply having someone look at it.

Here's an infographic illustrating the double-slit experiment:

Sure, none of this is concrete evidence that we're living in a simulation and many questions remain, like those concerning quantum mechanics and particle behavior, which continue to challenge the credibility of the simulation hypothesis. But it's not entirely out of the question that this theory could one day be confirmed.

Besides, even if the simulation hypothesis turns out to be true, it raises the question of whether the entities simulating us would even want us to find out. Or could it be that their project, in some sense, has failed? Revealing their existence might affect their intentions.