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As a kid who grew up in the 90s, I have very clear memories of driving through the Lower Austrian countryside. I would sit in the back seat, play my Game Boy and watch the fields and meadows pass by. The only sounds were the radio playing quietly and a steady thumping every few seconds. Grasshoppers, beetles, bees, butterflies, everything smacked against the windshield. After a drive like that, the front of the car was literally covered in dead insects. That was just how it was back then, completely normal, and nobody really thought twice about it.

Less than ten years later, it had already noticeably dropped off. And today it sounds almost unbelievable. Someone who drives through the countryside for an hour might find one or two insects on the windshield afterward. If that. Even on long walks through the fields, the life around us has already declined to a point where it should honestly be alarming when you think back. But most people do not notice, because the new state of things has long become their normal. And many cannot even know what they are missing, because they never experienced those fields and meadows in the first place. That is exactly what is known as Shifting Baseline Syndrome.

What Is Shifting Baseline Syndrome?

The term goes back to Canadian fisheries biologist Daniel Pauly, who first described the concept in 1995. It originally referred to the fishing industry. Each new generation of fishers takes the state of fish populations at the start of their career as a given, regardless of how much those populations have already shrunk compared to earlier times. What was a dramatic decline for the grandparent generation is simply the starting point for the grandchildren.

The syndrome describes a gradual process in which our sense of what a normal state looks like quietly shifts over time. And because it happens so slowly, we barely notice.

The Psychology Behind It

Having a reference point is fundamentally useful, we need one. The problem arises when that reference point slowly drifts in the wrong direction without anyone realizing it. And that is exactly what has been happening in nature for decades. When it comes to biodiversity, insect populations or forests, data and historical records paint a picture that looks very different from what we consider normal today. It is a bit like a frog in slowly heating water. The change happens too gradually to be perceived as a threat.

That is why we perceive depleted ecosystems as intact. Forests full of wildlife, rivers full of fish and meadows full of flowers may sound like an exaggeration to many people today, but these are historical facts.

Think back to your own childhood, or ask your parents and grandparents. Maybe you remember the abundance of insects, a truly dark night sky filled with stars, the sounds of nature that have in many places now been replaced by the constant noise of traffic and machinery, the long winters with deep snow that are getting shorter every year, or heatwaves that just a few decades ago were considered rare exceptions and are now accepted almost as the new standard. Maybe you even have old photos. Look at them and compare them with what you see around you today. So much of what used to be taken for granted is barely present anymore. We get used to the extraordinary because it has become routine.

This does not mean that everything was better in the past. In many areas like medicine or technology, standards have improved significantly, and we take that for granted too. Shifting Baseline Syndrome can technically be applied to many areas of life, but in practice it is most commonly associated with environmental and nature loss, where we no longer perceive changes as losses because we simply never knew the original state.

The Real Consequences

When you reflect on your own childhood and think about what the new standard looks like for this generation, Shifting Baseline Syndrome is clearly more than just an interesting psychological observation. Change is always happening, no question about it. The problem is that in the context of conservation, it has real consequences. Sure, the facts exist on paper. But when nobody remembers what things actually used to be like, the personal motivation for meaningful change disappears.

That is why we should consciously push back wherever it is practical and realistic in everyday life. Nobody has to turn their life upside down. But if you have the option to cycle or take public transport to work, that is an easy step. If you know where your fruit and vegetables come from and the ecological footprint is manageable, that beats grabbing whatever is closest at the supermarket. And if you have the choice, support the small local shop over the big chain when it is financially doable for you. Nobody is perfect and nobody has to be. But when a lot of people take small steps in the right direction, the combined effect adds up to something bigger than the sum of its parts.

That is what we can do on a personal level. Just as important, however, is that sensible decisions are made on a political level too. That this is not always the case will come as no surprise to most of us. Politicians are not immune to Shifting Baseline Syndrome either. And even when the facts are right there on the table, short-term thinking tends to win out. I think of an example from Austria, where a lower speed limit was introduced on a stretch of highway for environmental reasons to improve air quality. The numbers improved noticeably as a result. And then the speed limit was lifted again. The fact that the numbers were only better because the measure was in place did not seem to factor into the decision.

Good numbers on paper in the short term, a step backward in the long term. And if the numbers eventually get worse again, the previously poor baseline could by then have already become the new norm. That is how a baseline shifts, without anyone consciously noticing.

And because barely anyone feels the difference anymore, there is little pressure to set truly ambitious goals. For decades we have been caught in a downward spiral that becomes less and less visible from one generation to the next. And that is exactly why this needs to be talked about much more.

Closing Words

The decline of nature does not happen overnight. It is a gradual process that plays out over decades, and that is precisely what makes it so dangerous. This article is not meant to be a call for nostalgia. It is not about complaining or claiming that everything used to be better. It is about not losing sight of the real benchmark and understanding how much has already been lost. It is long overdue that we start pushing back now, before the baseline shifts any further than it already has.